When USC lost to Notre Dame and UCLA last year, head coach Lane Kiffin's job security was thought to be in immediate peril. Kiffin escaped the pink slip from USC athletic director Pat Haden.
Some staff changes—defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is out, and Clancy Pendergast is in—have led to some speculation that if the defense doesn't improve, Kiffin will probably be out of a job.
But the defense's performance isn't the litmus test for Kiffin's future at USC. If USC's defense underachieves, yet the team goes to a BCS bowl then all is forgiven, isn't it?
Kiffin's cloudy future stems from USC losing to its two rival schools and failing to secure a higher-tiered bowl berth.
The last time USC lost to Notre Dame and UCLA in the same season was in 1995. That was more than 17 years ago. It doesn't happen very often. So if Lane Kiffin were to repeat that feat this year? It would mark the first time in 19 years (1993-94) that USC will have lost to Notre Dame and UCLA in back-to-back years.
If USC goes 10-2 in the regular season (with losses to Notre Dame and UCLA) that signifies only one conference loss. That would probably be good enough to put USC in the conference championship game as the South's champion. Already that's an improvement over last year's 7-6 season. And if USC beat the North champion, that's an automatic berth to the Rose Bowl.
The Rose Bowl is USC's goal every year, so having met that goal translates to Kiffin's hot seat cooling down to tepid. And he will have accomplished that goal with only 69 scholarshipped players, barring any new prospects signing with USC this summer.
USC's November schedule looks like this: at Oregon State, at Cal, Stanford, at Colorado, UCLA. Coming out of that month with a 4-1 record (assuming a loss to Stanford) would be a marked improvement compared to last year's 1-3 record. But Oregon State and UCLA are swing games and Cal—under new head coach Sonny Dykes—could give USC's secondary fits. Realistically, only Colorado is most likely a win.
Losing to UCLA in the last game of the regular season isn't going to sit well with Trojan fans if there are other conference losses. Neither will embarrassing losses.
USC plays at Hawaii, Washington State, Boston College, Utah State and at Arizona State in September. USC should go 5-0 with that slate. But coming off a 7-6 season, all of a sudden that schedule doesn't look as forgiving.
USC's secondary is suspect, and playing against a Norm Chow offense (Hawaii) and an Air Raid offense (Washington State) translates to gut check time for USC fans. And what about Utah State?
The Aggies beat Utah last year and gave Wisconsin fits before finally losing 16-14. Quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back and is on at least one prominent 2013 Heisman watch list. You can count on Utah State being fired up to embarrass USC at the Coliseum.
Kiffin should be safe if USC loses to Notre Dame and UCLA but wins the Pac-12 South. His job will most certainly be secure if USC plays in the Rose Bowl. But Kiffin could also beat both Notre Dame and UCLA and still be job hunting at the end of the season if USC suffers embarrassing losses.
If Haden does cut Kiffin loose at the end of this season he will have dismissed a coach who only had one full recruiting class (2011) to work with. The last two classes were reduced due to scholarship restrictions resulting from NCAA sanctions. The fact that Kiffin hasn't really been able to coach with a full deck may be one of the reasons why Haden has professed his full support of Kiffin.
This year marks Kiffin's fourth year coaching at USC. And the four-year mark is usually when athletic directors take stock of a football program and decide whether or not a different direction is warranted.
Haden is a former Trojan quarterback and understands how important it is to beat Notre Dame and UCLA. Two consecutive losses to the Irish and the Bruins may be enough for him to search for a new head coach.
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